With the added halogens of the Big Monday spotlight, Kansas comes to town to face TCU and start the second week of February. Time is running out for both teams and the desperation of “winning time” should make for a raucous atmosphere.
Schollmaier Arena should be sold out. Metroplex KU fans typically buy up any extras when their Jayhawks are in Fort Worth. Those in attendance could have the mental memento of witnessing a slice of history. They could say they saw the Kansas team that ended The Streak.
Your Veteran Scribe has shoveled in-season dirt on the Jayhawks each of the last three seasons, writing for three different outlets that KU’s mind-boggling run of consecutive regular-season Big 12 titles would end. Those familiar with the work of YVS won’t be surprised those predictions wound up in the “Wrong Again” bin.
The basis for those off-base observations was logically sound. The last three Kansas teams lacked depth. Faced with the 18-game home-and-home slog in a conference ranked and regarded as the nation’s best, it appeared likely that the Jayhawks would be knocked off their perch.
Picking against a Hall of Fame coach is foolish. Each of the last three seasons, Bill Self has mixed and matched, tinkered and tweaked to keep the title streak alive. One of his biggest adjustments has been scrapping his favored starting five of two big men in favor of a four-guard lineup. The last three seasons, KU has often had just two or three scholarship low-post players.
The basketball gods, though, laugh at expectations. This year’s Kansas roster – featuring about half a dozen “bigs” — was perhaps the deepest and most talented that Self has had in nearly a decade. KU is always favored to win the Big 12 in the coaches’ preseason rankings. This season, it was a foregone conclusion that the streak would reach 15 consecutive Big 12 titles.
One of the strongest weapons wielded by the basketball gods is karma. They keep track of teams that have borrowed heavily from the bank of lucky breaks, fortuitous whistles and bad luck for their opponents. Karma is undefeated. It might take some time to record its victory, but it always wins. Karma is a bitch.
Kansas is currently significantly downgraded from its preseason No. 1 ranking. After a 10-0 start that included victories over Michigan State, Tennessee and Villanova, the Jayhawks are a middling 8-6. In Saturday’s 84-72 victory over Oklahoma State, Kansas had eight healthy scholarship players.
Junior center Udoka Azubuike (broken wrist), sophomore forward Silvio DeSousa (NCAA suspension) and senior guard Lagerald Vick (personal issues) are not with the team. In the overtime Elite Eight victory over Duke last season, those three players combined for 27 points and 21 rebounds.
If you believe the projections of algorithms composed by humans, KenPom.com and ESPN’s BPI both project that Iowa State has the best chance to win the league race. The computers, though, often freeze up with a blue screen when prognosticating the Big 12.
For instance, the Cyclones’ winning the Big 12 was based on them protecting their home court. Saturday, TCU went to Ames and made the Hilton Magic disappear. The Frogs solidified their NCAA Tournament resume and ended a 47-game road losing streak to ranked teams with an impressive 92-83 victory. The loss dropped Iowa State into a three-way tie for second place with Texas Tech and Kansas.
For those sounding the death knell, there is precedent for the Jayhawks to pull a Lazarus. Through 11 Big 12 games last season, Kansas was 8-3 (it was 7-4 this season) but won five of its last seven to finish 13-5. The Jayhawks were able to overcome two losses in Allen Fieldhouse, the most in a single season during The Streak. During the last 14 seasons, Kansas is 101-8 in the Phog.
This season, Kansas has lost four of five Big 12 road games. Starting with the Big Monday game with TCU, the Jayhawks also play Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma on the road. If they win three of four and finish undefeated at home – something they’ve done seven times in the last 14 seasons – they’ll finish 13-5.
Late last week, Self wasn’t interested in pennant race talk.
“It’s not right to talk about the league race, because right now we’re not even in the league race — at least the way I see it,” Self told the Lawrence Journal-World. “Until we start, you know, doing some things to create some positive energy and wins moving forward, because there’s so little margin for error.”
Even with the return of sophomore glue guy Marcus Garrett (high ankle sprain), Self’s player rotation lacks a senior (four freshmen, three sophomores and two juniors). Particularly in the last three seasons, Kansas has had veteran point guards like Frank Mason and Devonte Graham who could take over in end-game situations.
That brings us to the predictive portion of this essay. As stated before, the accuracy of observations and forecasts made by YVS are – ahem – highly questionable. From observations of this season, Kansas is lacking two key ingredients.
First, Kansas is being outscored from 3-point range by 93 points on the season. The last three seasons, KU had 3-point scoring edges of 243, 150 and 228 points. Compared to the last three seasons, the Jayhawks are lacking an important offensive weapon that was the key factor in their seasons.
Second, KU has lacked the mental toughness or grit to finish with winning plays. In five of their six losses – all on the road – the Jayhawks have been inept in the final five minutes. (At Iowa State, KU was blown out and trailed 13 at the five-minute mark.) In losses at Arizona State and West Virginia, Kansas had leads of seven and six points with less than five to play.
(Should Kansas fall a victory short of finishing atop the standings, the loss to the last-place Mountaineers will tell the tale. During The Streak, Kansas has lost to the conference’s last-place team once – at TCU in 2013.)
At Kentucky, Kansas State and Texas, KU faced deficits of eight, four and six at the five-minute mark.
In those five losses, Kansas was outscored a combined 74-57 in the final five minutes. Wait, it gets worse. It scored on just 23-of-48 possessions while the opponents scored on 34-of-45. And the Jayhawks made 7-of-20 3-pointers while its foes are 8-of-11.
If coffee is for closers, then KU drinks tea.
“Are we in a great position to win the league?” Self said after Tuesday night’s loss at Kansas State. “No. Do we deserve to be in a great position? Absolutely not. Can we flip the switch? Remains to be seen.”
We’ll start to see more Monday night.
