I live for college football preseason polls despite their obsession with the Southeastern Conference. The AP poll is the “granddaddy” of them of all, in my mind. Fortunately for schools such as TCU, the voters routinely get it wrong (see 2014 and 2017). But I respect the sanctity of this particular poll because many of the voters take themselves extremely seriously and seem to have a working knowledge of the Pac-12.
The AP poll was released Monday morning to much fanfare. I started picking it apart on my daily radio show, cheekily known as “The Matt Mosley Show.” I of course wanted to know where the Sooners and Longhorns landed, and you’ll be happy to know they are Nos. 4 and 10.
I think No. 10 is about right for Texas. I was shocked when Sports Illustrated had the Horns at No. 5 in its college football preview. But with quarterback Sam Ehlinger on SI’s regional cover, the magazine may have felt compelled to exalt Tom Herman’s youngsters. As my colleagues at PressBoxDFW will attest, I was the first to get behind Ehlinger as a long shot Heisman candidate. Now, everyone’s hopping aboard.
If Texas knocks off LSU (No. 6) in Austin, this will become one of the most hyped teams in the country. I’ve been reading about UT experimenting with eight defensive backs on the field in certain situations. The secondary seems to be the strength of the defense, but dropping all those players into coverage is outlandish. Texas has to play road games against TCU, Iowa State and Baylor. Those are winnable games, but playing the Cyclones and Bears in consecutive weeks in November will be tough. At least it feels like the Horns have finally earned some of the hype.
The most shocking part of the AP poll was Florida at No. 8. I don’t know how in the world you rank a team quarterbacked by Felipe Franks that high. Dan Mullen is a good coach, but have the voters not noticed those top-ranked recruits who’ve recently left the program? My guess is that it has everything to do with a relatively weak schedule. The Gators may pick up momentum if they beat Auburn in early October, but they are not built to win in Baton Rouge. And they’ll get destroyed by Georgia in Jacksonville.
There are certain teams that have been picked in the top 10 in recent years who finish unranked. For whatever reason, most of those teams seem to lodge in Florida. Looking at you, Jimbo Fisher and poor Mark Richt.
Texas A&M at No. 12 is also baffling. There’s simply no way to survive a schedule that includes the top three schools in the AP poll, along with No. 6 LSU. And the Tigers have that Nov. 30 matchup with the Aggies circled due to the wacky OT affair last season. LSU choked that game away at the end of regulation, and it’s been on Coach O’s mind the entire offseason. If the Ags somehow beat Clemson and LSU, they could be a potential CFP team at 10-2. I don’t see it happening because Fisher’s team is too young, and I’m not convinced Kellen Mond’s a special quarterback.
The Sooners are about right at No. 4, although having four new starters on the offensive line will make life interesting for quarterback Jalen Hurts. He’s obviously going to put up huge numbers in this offense, but it’s hard to prepare for how many points you have to score in the Big 12. Gary Patterson has not matched up well with the Sooners in recent years, but I assure you he’ll have a plan for Hurts. He’s thrilled not to be facing Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray.
Outside of the Red River Showdown, the Sooners have a cushy schedule. A road game in Waco on Nov. 16 and then Bedlam on Nov. 30 are the only hurdles. It feels like another two-horse race in the Big 12, unless the Cyclones can put something together. I like quarterback Brock Purdy, but he lost premier players to the NFL at running back and receiver. Iowa State checks in at No. 21. Coach Matt Campbell has become one of the most respected coaches in the country for what he’s accomplished in Ames.
I would’ve put the Cyclones in front of UCF, Michigan State, Iowa and Auburn. The voters flooded the poll with Big Ten teams starting at No. 18 and ending with Nebraska at 24. I like Huskers coach Scott Frost as much as the next guy, but his team finished 4-8 last season. Adrian Martinez is a talented quarterback, but I don’t see a huge jump coming. Nebraska hosts Ohio State in late September. Maybe there’s a chance the Huskers can catch the Buckeyes before new quarterback Justin Fields has found his footing. Otherwise, I think teams like TCU or Baylor would’ve been better choices.
And remind me next time to flesh out my working theory that Notre Dame should be ineligible for the Final Four in 2019. All my best.
