They’re long-time rivals who don’t play anymore. Both schools’ fan bases are amped about promising seasons. On Saturday, each are facing watershed games against top 10 foes, games that have been discussed and anticipated for the last seven months.
No. 12 Texas A&M travels to Clemson to face the defending national champions for a 2:30 p.m. contest while No. 9 Texas is at home against No. 6 LSU – one of the Aggies’ chief Southeastern Conference rivals – for a 6:30 p.m. game. Both contests will be on ABC — which for now is as close as the Aggies and the Longhorns will come to sharing a football spotlight.
Both teams are underdogs. Clemson is favored by 16 1/2 and LSU by 6 1/2. Upsets will propel either team into or near the top five. Based on the current polls, Texas A&M will be facing the first of five foes ranked in the top 10.
This day-night twin bill is the highlight of Week Two. Here are the best guesses how and why Texas and Texas A&M will win.
Texas beats LSU if …
Superman plays quarterback: During last Saturday’s season opener, the stadium public address system played the Superman theme when Sam Ehlinger made a big play. Texas will need Ehlinger to be more man of steel than Clark Kent. That means the offensive line, which played well against Louisiana Tech, will have to give its QB time to throw. Ehlinger had a 113.5 passer rating – the best of returning Big 12 quarterbacks – when provided a clean pocket.
UT’s receivers get open: LSU’s secondary is considered the nation’s best and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is one of the nation’s best. The Tigers’ DBs are prideful in their man-to-man coverage skills. Texas will counter with a talented and deep group of receivers. Their challenge will be winning individual battles and getting open.
The running game is a threat: Sophomore Keaontay Ingram is UT’s only healthy scholarship running back with experience. His backup is freshman Roschon Johnson, who two weeks ago was the third-string quarterback. Ingram will need to make the most of his chances against LSU’s three-man defensive front and linebackers. He’s adept at seeing a clogged hole and bouncing to daylight. Texas can’t afford to be one-dimensional against the Tigers’ speedy defense. Ehlinger could also be a factor as a ball carrier but that comes with risk. He has four games with 20 or more carries; that would not be optimal.
UT proves it’s the real DBU: As in Defensive Back University. That’s also a claim LSU can make but the Texas secondary will need to prove that for this one, it’s the one and true DBU. The Tigers’ offense has been modernized by new passing game coordinator Joe Brady and quarterback Joe Burrow misfired on only four of 27 attempts in the opener. LSU wants to play up-tempo and have Burrow make quick and accurate throws. The Longhorns will need to communicate and coordinate their coverage to prevent mistakes that can produce big plays.
Can drive and control the ball: The downside of not producing big plays (no plays of 50 yards or more in the last 15 games) is that the Longhorns and Ehlinger have been adept at long and relentless scoring drives. Frustrating and wearing down LSU’s defense while turning the Tigers’ offense into bench warmers is a good strategy. Over the last 15 games, Texas has 17 touchdown drives of 10 or more plays.
Texas A&M beats Clemson if …
Kellen Mond balls out: Last season’s two-point loss to Clemson in College Station proved that Mond was the Aggies’ best quarterback. He threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns, rallying A&M from a 21-6 second half deficit to the brink of forcing overtime. The junior has improved his mechanics and those now match his impressive talents. Mond struggled last year when pressured in the pocket but if he handles Clemson’s pass rush, he could duplicate last year’s numbers.
The running game clicks: Sophomore running back Jashaun Corbin had 103 yards on 22 carries while freshman backup Isaiah Spiller had an 85-yard run and finished with 106 yards. Clemson’s defensive front is talented but inexperienced. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables would love to force Mond into passing situations to unleash an unfettered pass rush. The obvious way to counter that is a productive running game and a balanced attack.
The defense stuffs the run: In the season opener Georgia Tech schemed to stop Clemson’s passing attack (a bold strategy, Cotton). Tigers running back Travis Etienne ran for 205 yards and averaged 17 yards a carry. Last season in College Station, the Aggies held Etienne to just 44 yards on eight carries. A&M needs to limit the run threat in order to force Clemson to pass and then pressure sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence into misses and/or mistakes.
Win turnovers and field position: The Aggies lost the turnover battle (minus two) in last season’s loss. A great way to take a home-field crowd out of the game is by taking the ball away. A&M’s secondary had four interceptions in the opener and defensive coordinator Mike Elko has his unit playing with confidence. Senior punter Braden Mann, last year’s Ray Guy winner, can flip the field and he could force Clemson to start drives deep in its own end of the field.
It’s close starting the fourth quarter: Clemson has won its last 11 games by 20 or more points. If the Tigers haven’t secured the bag starting the fourth quarter, the Aggies can build off last season’s close call and believe they can pull the upset. If Clemson is clinging or trailing, dealing with game pressure will be a new experience.
