The Baylor Bears are about to play a “trap game” against their biggest rivals. I know that sounds ridiculous, but the Bears lead the Big 12 Conference with an 8-0 record and No. 12 ranking, according to the CFP committee. If the Sooners (7-1) get by Iowa State in Norman on Saturday, they will arrive in Waco next Saturday with one loss.
There’s already talk of ESPN’s College GameDay making the trip. Baylor hasn’t beaten the Frogs since 2014, but no one seems to care. The Frogs have chaos at quarterback. Kansas State transfer Alex Delton has left the building. Justin Rogers is in the transfer portal.
Michael Collins took such a vicious hit Saturday in Stillwater that he’s not available. The Frogs have run out of quarterbacks, and that should terrify every Baptist, moderate or conservative.
I would not put it past Gary Patterson to use the “wildcat” formation throughout much of the game Saturday. The Frogs are sitting on .500, but ruining Baylor’s “perfect” season would surpass the joy Gary felt in beating the Longhorns. He acknowledged earlier this week the Baylor-TCU religious war has lost a little steam. It hit its zenith in 2014 when both Patterson and Art Briles were at the peak of their powers. It was arguably the best defensive coach in the country versus the best offensive coach. Gary and Art are both friends of mine, and neither coach ever said a negative thing about the other to me. But yes, they couldn’t stand each other.
The two fan bases fed off that hate. We’ve tried to make this about the Frogs not getting into the Big 12 when it was formed, but that’s only part of the story. I will say that Patterson and Matt Rhule are mutual admirers. I’ve tried to change that, but Gary kept telling me during Baylor’s 1-11 season in 2017 that Rhule was doing a great job. The two schools can no longer look to the head coaches to set the tone. It’s up to the fans. And the Bears believe they are due for a win in Fort Worth.
My biggest fear, as a Baylor alum, is that TCU might be much better than its record. The Frogs have lost to SMU, Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State, all teams that have been in the top 25 at some point. The Cyclones destroyed the Frogs, but the other three teams won by an average of 5.7 points per game. My main source of Big 12 analytics, Sicem 365’s Sam Bradshaw, tells me the Frogs have converted 45.8 percent on third down against Power 5 teams. That’s a pretty impressive clip.
They are also averaging 5.73 points per red-zone trip, which puts them well ahead of other Power 5 teams against the same opponents. There are signs that point to the Frogs being pretty efficient despite their four losses. And that’s why I’m not buying all this doom and gloom about quarterback. Patterson likes the young Max Duggan, and he’ll have the “wildcat” formation loaded for, um, bear.
I think the Bears were fortunate to have an 11 a.m. kickoff because the Frogs have been known to sleep in. Baylor has launched a campaign for its fans to take over Amon Carter, and maybe it will work. It won’t work with me, unfortunately. I’ve been offered a beautiful seat in the press box, but I’m determined not to return to that stadium. Dad and I were there on Oct. 23, 1982, when the Frogs beat the Bears, 38-14. I was 8 at the time, but I still recall my dad explaining that we’d just burned quarterback Tom Muecke’s redshirt in a blowout. I know Baylor has won games at Amon Carter since then, but I’ve only attended the ones they’ve lost, including that monsoon in 2015. I think it’s best to stick to my guns on this one.
What I do enjoy is how quickly Rhule has flipped the script on this rivalry. It would make TCU’s season to knock off the Bears on Saturday. And honestly, that’s the way I like it.
