Large point spreads are the bane of anyone who bets on college football.
Did anyone really think Oklahoma was 33 points better than Kansas when the two teams met in early October? Some did, some didn’t, and that’s exactly the way that the Las Vegas oddsmakers wanted it.
Games that invite large point spreads often invite fourth quarters that are tantamount to garbage time. Bettors hate garbage time, with the field often cluttered with freshmen and walk-ons, running plays from the deep recesses of the playbook. The “back door cover” — the late, often half-hearted score that sways the point spread-adjusted final score in a team’s favor — has been known to ruin many a bettor’s Saturday.
That’s our excuse, at least, for most of us having such mediocre records after 10 weeks of picking games for Bet the House. It’s killing us to sweat out whether the Oklahomas and Alabamas will cover their bulbous point spreads.
But that’s why it’s called gambling.
Here is our Veterans Day weekend list of games, with comments attached:
Standings
Art Garcia 65-52-2 (6-5)
Marjorie Lewis 64-53-2 (6-5)
Richie Whitt 62-55-2 (9-2)
John Henry 61-56-2 (6-5)
Anthony Andro 61-56-2 (5-6)
Jan Hubbard 60-57-2 (4-7)
Matt Mosley 59-58-2 (7-4)
Gil LeBreton 59-58-2 (6-5)
Carlos Mendez 58-59-2 (8-3)
Jimmy Burch 54-63-2 (3-8)
ART GARCIA
Last week: 6-5
Season: 65-52-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — Frogs put a scare into the Bears’ perfection. Pick: BU
East Carolina at SMU -22 — Mustangs bounce back with a win but their defense is still smarting. Pick: ECU
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Remember when the Horns were in the Top 10? Pick: KSU
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Don’t sleep on the Cyclones. Pick: ISU
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Who says the race for the Big 12 cellar can’t be fun. Pick: WVU
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — The loser may be in better position to make the playoffs. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — This loser in this battle of unbeatens is done. Pick: Minnesota
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — The Mean Green keep their bowl hopes alive. Pick: UNT
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Statement time for the Tigers. Pick: Clemson
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Too bad the ACC can’t really claim the Irish. Pick: Notre Dame
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — This would be the Cowboys’ biggest win. Pick: Vikings
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — How are the Steelers still in the playoff race? Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — The last unbeaten falls. Pick: Seahawks
MARJORIE LEWIS
Last week: 6-5
Season: 64-53-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — I’ll take the Baylor ground game vs. the TCU defense designed to stop the pass. Pick: Baylor
East Carolina at SMU -22 — Riding a four-game losing streak, ECU is the perfect rebound game. Pick: SMU
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Toss up with too many points. Pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Second consecutive loss to an Oklahoma university. Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Tough to go with a team that’s lost every road game. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — Alabama has its QB back, but LSU has an pretty good QB, too, and will be ready. This is for the national championship, in my mind. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — Minnesota is looking good, but Penn State is looking great. Pick: Penn State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — If this morphs into a shootout, the tie goes to Louisiana Tech. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Clemson will not cover against this ACC highly ranked defense. Pick: North Carolina State
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Notre Dame will start fast and win big. Pick: Notre Dame
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — Cowboys have a fairly healthy defense and a better offense. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Rams defense will give Steelers fits. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — The 49ers have to lose sometime, right? Take the points, anyway. Pick: Seahawks
RICHIE WHITT
Last week: 9-2
Season: 62-55-2
East Carolina at SMU -22 — Mustangs’ balloon popped. 11 a.m. kickoff won’t help. Pick: East Carolina
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Longhorns’ defense gets major boost from return of safety Caden Sterns. Pick: Texas
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Sooners take out disappointment by naming their score. Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Raiders have surrendered 33+ points in five straight games. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — Nick Saban relishes beating down plucky upstarts. Pick: Alabama
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — Gophers’ magical, undefeated season goes the way of SMU. Pick: Penn State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — Quarterback Mason Fine won’t throw another seven TDs this week. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Tigers peeved at being left out of initial playoff. Pick: Clemson
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Irish, as usual, have been overrated all season. Pick: Notre Dame
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — Dak is better than Cousins; Zeke better than Cook. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Not convinced Rams can’t still be Super. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — San Francisco’s fake identity finally unmasked. Pick: Seahawks
JOHN HENRY
Last week: 6-5
Season: 61-56-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — Focused Baylor is zeroed in on this one as a titanic tilt with OU awaits next week on the Brazos. Pick: Baylor
East Carolina at SMU -22 — SMU has beaten up on every other bad team it’s played. East Carolina, the 51st state, qualifies. Pick: SMU
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Texas is expected to get some pieces back on defense, but giving seven represents far too much respect for the Longhorns. Pick: Kansas State.
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Sooners have outscored opponents by an average of 57-19 at home. Now, not all — any — of those will be mistaken for Rockne’s Notre Dame. Iowa State isn’t either, but they’re also not South Dakota. Still, OU, I think rebounds well. Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Reason suggests Tech will figure out a way to get to 3-6. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — Bubbas everywhere will be jazzed for this one in Tuscaloosa, but it’s LSU … this time. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — Nittany Lions prove they’re the best of these two 8-0s. Much better. Pick: Penn State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — It’s back down to earth for the T-Rex and Mean Green. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — No. 5 Clemson playing for style points. Pick: Clemson
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — The judge looked sternly at the defendant, young Murphy, and said, “Young man, it’s alcohol and alcohol along that’s responsible for your present sorry state!” Said Murphy, relieved: “I’m glad to hear you say that. Everybody else says it’s all my fault.” Pick: Duke
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — What kind of start will the Cowboys get this week? Betting a slow one. Pick: Vikings
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Riding a two-game win streak, the Rams might have figured something out. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — 49ers official coming out party on Monday night, a game that used to count for something. Pick: 49ers
ANTHONY ANDRO
Last week: 5-6
Season: 61-56-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — Too many injuries issues for the Frogs. Pick: Baylor
East Carolina at SMU -22 — The Mustangs are still licking their wounds. Pick: East Carolina
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Hopefully Texas used the week off to learn how to tackle. Pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Boomer. Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Big game to determine who has chance at crappy bowl game in Arizona. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — Seems like a lot of points. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — At home and a touchdown. Yes please. Pick: Minnesota
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — Mason Fine won’t go prehistoric again. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — The best No. 5 team in the country is giving a lot of points. Pick: NC State
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Duke would have a chance in basketball. Pick: Notre Dame
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — The Cowboys have enough if they can slow down Dalvin Cook. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Rams have had a week to get healthy. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — Big opportunity for 49ers but even bigger spread. Pick: Seahawks
JAN HUBBARD
Last week: 4-7
Season: 60-57-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — Bears are motivated by CFP diss – one of two undefeated teams not in top 10. They take it out on the Frogs. Pick: Baylor
East Carolina at SMU -22 — Mustangs dream of a Big Six bowl ended last week in Memphis but they bounce back against team on four-game losing streak. Pick: SMU
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Who would have though that KSU would have a better record at this point than Texas? Pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Cyclones had a disappointing home loss to Oklahoma Sate last week and now they’re the road team. They can’t win the game, but they are tough enough to beat the spread. Pick: Iowa State
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Two teams with losing streaks – four for West Virginia and three for Tech – meet in a game that is not significant but could be entertaining. Or not. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — If LSU is No.1, shouldn’t it be giving points? ’Bama has the track record, the mystique and home field. Not good for the Tigers. Pick: Alabama
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — Like Baylor, Minnesota is not in top 10 despite being undefeated. But are the Gophers ready for prime time? Pick: Ohio State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — Mean Green looking to avenge loss at home to Tech last season. Pick: North Texas
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Poor NC State. Clemson ranked a lowly fifth despite being defending national champions and undefeated this season. Tigers take it out on Wolfpack. Pick: Clemson
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Notre Dame beat Virginia Tech by one point last week and Duke beat Virginia Tech by 35 earlier in the season. Hmm. Pick: Duke
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — Second half of the season starts for Dallas. Will it be eight more games in the Garrett era? The Cowboys have beaten only one team with a winning record – 5-4 Philadelphia – and, by the way are the “1” in the 1-7 Jets season. Pick: Minnesota
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Rams have struggled but are 3-1 on the road. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — Wonder if Richard Sherman will have anything to say about his former team? Pick: San Francisco
MATT MOSLEY
Last week: 7-4
Season: 59-58-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — Gary Patterson would like nothing more than to hand the Bears their first defeat. Baylor was awful on offense last year in Waco. Matt Rhule is determined to break through against Patterson. In other news, Gary declined to do my radio show this week. It’s on! Pick: Baylor
East Carolina at SMU -22 — ECU has shown some improvement. Mustangs have to avoid the type of hangover Richie Whitt has after lavish house parties in Rockwall. Pick: East Carolina
Kansas State at Texas -7 — The Wildcats were surprisingly ranked 16th in the CFP. This is a huge game for Tom Herman after back-to-back struggles. Pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Matt Campbell is too good a coach for this line, BUT the Sooners always roll after unexpected losses. Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Neal Brown is not getting enough respect with this line. The Mountaineers gave mighty Baylor all it could stand. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — I can hear it now. Tigers will find a way to win via Joe Burrow’s arm, but the CFP will point to Tua’s injury. We might see the “Game of the Century” again. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — This is such a tough spot for the Gophers. They have a lot of good things happening, but they are not prepared for this step up in competition. James Franklin is gonna row his boat right over the Gophers. Pick: Penn State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — Our commitment to picking UNT games is impressive. Wish I knew what happened to Littrell’s youngsters this season. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Such an embarrassing line for the Wolf Pack. This is an opportunity for the Tigers to get some style points. Pick: North Carolina State
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — The Irish could lose three more games and still be ranked. Give me the QB whisperer to keep it close. By the way, do we think Coach K has any clue who Duke football is playing Saturday? Pick: Duke
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — How could anyone trust the Cowboys? Pick: Vikings
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 –– I am a big Mason Rudolph fan. Love the southern hairstyle. But the Rams have too much firepower. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — Can you imagine the 49ers favored by 6 over Seattle? I can’t either. Pick: Seahawks
GIL LeBRETON
Last week: 6-5
Season: 59-58-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — Frogs defense will disrupt Brewer enough to keep this rivalry game close. Pick: TCU
East Carolina at SMU -22 — Ponies will enjoy being home and get back on high-scoring track. Pick: SMU
Kansas State at Texas -7 — Who’s hotter than the Wildcats? And they’re getting 7 points? Pick: Kansas State.
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Cyclones too good to be awed by this challenge. Pick: Iowa State
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Take the points and the fans in camouflage. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — So as not to taint my anxieties over this game in any way, I must refrain from picking a winner.
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — Gophers have been seeing backup QBs and second-division defenses en route to 8-0. Nittany Lions are in a different class. Pick: Penn State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — Tech’s only loss was at Texas. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — This is one of those big-spread games and the Wolfpack is playing at home. Pick: NC State
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Irish’s two losses have come at Georgia and Michigan. Blue Devils will be over-matched. Pick: Notre Dame
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — Playing at home, Cowboys should be able to handle Mike Zimmer’s defense. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Rams still a quality contender and they’ll be hungry to show that. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — Down goes the last unbeaten team. Pick: Seahawks
CARLOS MENDEZ
Last week: 8-3
Season: 58-59-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — With TCU’s quarterback situation, this is a game you should “stay away from,” in wagering terms. Doesn’t apply to real life. I’ll be there. Pick: Baylor
East Carolina at SMU -22 — It’s homecoming, ought to be a nice day, and East Carolina’s not too good. (But does looks like it can score a little bit). Pick: East Carolina
Kansas State at Texas -7 — K-State’s salty, now. I like the touchdown. Pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — Iowa State has that defense it invented just for the Big 12. Aw, what the heck — Pick: Iowa State
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — I’ll take a home dog that’s tough at home. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — LSU is the most complete Big 12 team in the SEC. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — Gotta applaud PJ Fleck. But surely the talent gap hasn’t closed that much. Pick: Penn State
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — LaTech is scoring a lot of points lately. And it’s homecoming. Maybe Bradshaw will be there. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Always wonder if teams get bored before they hit the number. Pick: NC State
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — Touchdown-plus is kind of a heavy lift for the Irish offense. Pick: Duke
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — Maybe no Amari Cooper. No maybe on Dallas D. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — Steelers have a better vibe to their year. And quarterback. Pick: Steelers
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — Love, love Russell Wilson. Pick: Seahawks
JIMMY BURCH
Last week: 3-8
Season: 54-63-2
Baylor at TCU +2 — It may be indigestion, but a powerful gut feeling tells me the inconsistent Frogs are about to spring a Bear Trap. Pick: TCU
East Carolina at SMU -22 — East Carolina took Cincinnati, the AAC’s best team, to overtime last week. The Mustangs win but fail to cover. Pick: East Carolina
Kansas State at Texas -7 — How in the name of longtime Longhorn nemesis Bill Snyder is Texas favored to win this game, let alone by a touchdown? Pick: Kansas State
Iowa State at Oklahoma -14 1/2 — There will be no Cyclone damages sustained in Norman, Okla., during this matchup, like there were two years ago. Pick: Oklahoma
Texas Tech at West Virginia +2 1/2 — Another road trip, another gut-wrenching loss for the Red Raiders, who have yet to win a road game this season. Pick: West Virginia
LSU at Alabama -6 1/2 — LSU has enough playmakers to win this game outright. I certainly expect them to cover the spread. Pick: LSU
Penn State at Minnesota +7 — This will be a reality check for both undefeated teams. But only Penn State truly belongs in Big 10 and CFP title contention. Pick: Penn St.
North Texas at Louisiana Tech -5 1/2 — LaTech has won seven straight games. Don’t expect to see Mason Fine in a dinosaur costume at this postgame presser. Pick: Louisiana Tech
Clemson at North Carolina State +31 1/2 — Clemson is hitting its offensive stride and seeking to send a message to members of the CFP selection committee. Pick: Clemson
Notre Dame at Duke +8 — The reeling Irish should cover this spread. Pick: Notre Dame
Vikings at Cowboys -3 — It’s time for another step-up game by the Cowboys. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Steelers +3 1/2 — The Rams have been a better road team than home team this season. Pick: Rams
Seahawks at 49ers -6 — The 49ers will lose eventually. But not this week. Pick: 49ers