Early season non-conference games are, frankly, shots in the dark. Even the Vegas oddsmakers admit that.
The feeble and the over-matched may quickly emerge, but the point spread clouds the process. That’s why it’s call gambling.
Old standbys (see the photo above) are often reliable. But the first few weeks of this season have been marked by bad calls and key injuries. Just look at the NFL’s list of “who’s not starting” at quarterback this week.
Our picks for this week follow, but first here’s how our writers stand (all picking against the spread) through the first three weeks:
Standings
John Henry, 25-9-2
Art Garcia, 25-9-2
Jan Hubbard, 23-11-2
Marjorie Lewis, 22-12-2
Richie Whitt, 20-14-2
Gil LeBreton, 19-15-2
Anthony Andro, 19-15-2
Matt Mosley, 18-16-2
Jimmy Burch, 17-17-2
Carlos Mendez, 17-17-2
JOHN HENRY
Last week: 6-5-1
Season 25-9-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — The Mustangs will need to be able to run the football to stay within the same time zone as the Horned Frogs. Pick: TCU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 – The Cowboys enter with a four-game winning streak against Texas. Three of those games were decided by three points. Pick: Oklahoma State
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 – Rice’s tour of its old SWC pals this week turns to Baylor. Like last week against Texas, it’ll feel just like old times. Turn back the clock … tune up the engine on Baylor’s side of the scoreboard. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 – Kansas threw a wrench into the gaming establishment last week, but after giving Catholic Boston College a beating it hadn’t seen since that group of nuns in the first grade, what’s not to like about 4 1/2 against a meh West Virginia? Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas -19 – Mean Green get back on the rails in its Conference USA opener with the Road(hard)runners. Pick: North Texas
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 – If they Ags really have taken a step in the right direction, this is the game they take care of at home. Pick: Texas A&M
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 – Uga has too much bite for the Fighting Irish, who will fight … in vain. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 – Who is USC exactly? Untrustworthy, that’s who. Trojans and the state of Utah don’t mix. Pick: Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — Let’s do the Badger shuffle, shall we? Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Johnny Reb shows the Haight-Ashbury cats a little something-something in Mississippi. Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 – Are the Cowboys really 23 points better than Miami, the only dolphins I know who can’t swim. Yes, they are. The Cowboys have done what they should have against inferior opponents the first two weeks. They’ll do it a third time, too. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Browns +3 – The Browns are not yet markedly better, needing a lousy Jets to notch win No. 1. Pick: Rams
ART GARCIA
Last week: 8-3-1
Season: 25-9-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — Something special brewing on the Hilltop? Pick: SMU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — Cowboys love playing in Texas. Pick: OSU
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Owls face another former SWC foe in another ugly reunion. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 –– Les has been more for KU but this mountain won’t be an easy climb. Pick: WVU
UTSA at North Texas -19 — Played a close one last year. This one won’t be. Pick: UNT
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — Jimbo’s Aggies are gonna win one of these brutal games. Right? Pick: A&M
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Irish don’t belong in the top 10. This will prove it. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — Class of the Pac-12 doesn’t reside in Cali. Pick: Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — The Fighting Harbaughs are 0-6 as underdogs. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Rebels cruise against the undefeated Bears. Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — Preseason ends for Dak and Co. Pick: Cowboys
JAN HUBBARD
Last week: 9-2-1
Season: 23-11-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — Mustangs are 3-0 for first time since 1984. Can it last a little longer? No, it can’t. Pick: TCU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — Cowboys will provide a test, but Longhorns’ experience wins out. Pick: Texas
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Old Southwest Conference foes grapple, but they are not only in different leagues; they’re in different solar systems. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — Bookies not believing in Jayhawks despite 2-1 record. Looks like Les Miles has a team that — ready or not — may be halfway to bowl eligibility. Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas 19 — After consecutive losses to SMU and California, Mean Green get a breather. Pick: North Texas
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — Visiting teams have won six of seven games since Aggies joined SEC. Look for that to continue. Pick: Auburn
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Irish won their first two games by a combined 70 points. But Georgia is not Louisville or New Mexico. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — One team is ranked No. 10; the other is not ranked. Who would have thought Utah would be favored in L.A.? Pick: Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — Can Wolverines stop Jonathan Taylor? Probably not. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Golden Bears have a quality win over Washington and also defeated North Texas. They won’t be bothered by the road game. Pick: Cal
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — Considering the Dolphins have been outscored 102-10, this is not an unreasonable line. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Browns +3 — Browns off to an average start. They were supposed to be more impressive, but just when there are no grand expectations, maybe they will be. Pick: Browns
MARJORIE LEWIS
Last week: 7-4-1
Season: 22-12-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — SMU will make it interesting. Pick: SMU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — OSU tends to do well in Austin. May not be sixth win in a row there, but this will be close. Pick: Oklahoma State
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Baylor wants not just to win but to win big. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — Probably not going to be a great game, but should leave Les Miles hopeful. Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas -19 — UTSA will surprise. Not win. Pick: UTSA
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — This should be a must-see. Pick: Auburn
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Georgia is really good. Notre Dame is not of that caliber. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — Utah is a much better team. Pick Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — Michigan has to win and should keep it close. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Not much to write home about. Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — Certainly the Cowboys will cover against this disaster of a team. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Browns +3 — Fun to watch Baker Mayfield, but this is too much. Pick: Rams
RICHIE WHITT
Last week: 8-3-1
Season: 20-14-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — Buechele’s reboot and the Iron Skillet enough for Dallas to keep it close against Fort Worth. Pick: SMU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — Cowboys have scored 40+ in every game and we saw what LSU did to ‘Horns’ defense. Pick: Oklahoma State
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Owls at -62 point differential already, headed for 300+. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — Jayhawks getting only 4 1/2 already a Lawrence miracle. Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas -19 — Mean Green finally pick on someone their own size. Pick: North Texas
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — Another fruitless sojourn as SEC fodder begins for Aggies. Pick: Auburn
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Irish’s lack of speed exposed in last year’s playoff semi vs. Clemson. Rinse and repeat. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — Trojans deflated after OT loss to BYU. Pick: Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — First one to 10 wins. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Bears barely escaped North Texas, can’t handle SEC mid-rung. Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — Miami stinks, but NFL underdogs getting 17+ are 22-11. Pick: Dolphins
Rams at Browns +3 — Dawg pound back from life support. Pick: Browns
GIL LeBRETON
Last week: 4-7-1
Season: 19-15-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — Frogs will win, but seems like a lot of points to give to an underdog that scores plenty on its own. Pick: SMU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — Longhorns are solid enough not to trip up again versus Cowboys. Pick: Texas
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Baylor will score 60, which means Owls would have to score at least 35, which ain’t happening. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — Crowd of hundreds should inspire the resurgent Jayhawks. Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas -19 — Conference USA opponent more to Mean Green’s caliber. Pick: UNT
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — Auburn has a nasty defense, but I’ll go with the home team and its experienced QB. Pick: A&M
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Irish is in over its overrated head on this one. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — I’ll go with the more desperate team, playing a must-win game at home and getting the points. Pick: USC
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — I don’t trust Harbaugh’s team, especially in Madison. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Cal is ranked, but Rebels are accustomed to playing ranked teams. Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — The Fish may stink, but history tells us that’s a ridiculously large number to cover, even considering how well the Cowboys offense has played. Pick: Dolphins
Rams at Browns +3 — Rams could be flat as hell after last week’s win, but they’re still at least a touchdown better than Browns. Pick: Rams
ANTHONY ANDRO
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 19-15-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — TCU is too much for the fighting Shane Buecheles. Pick: TCU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — Maybe this is the year Texas figures out the Cowboys. Pick: Texas
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Rice didn’t show up for a Big 12 opponent last week either. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — Can Kansas follow up a big road win with a big home win? Why not. Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas -19 — That’s an awful lot of points for this game. Pick: UTSA
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — Can’t go with my heart here. Pick: Auburn
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Big chance for a statement game for both teams. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — USC will make it 1-1 against teams from Utah this year. Pick: USC
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — Wisconsin is a lot better than Army. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — The bottom tier of the SEC is awful. Pick: Cal
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — Guessing Cowboys treat second half like a preseason game. Pick: Dolphins
Rams at Browns +3 — Another laid egg at home for the Browns? Pick: Rams
MATT MOSLEY
Last week: 7-4-1
Season: 18-16-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — I know the Horned Frogs are a little hazy at QB, but this feels like a rout. Pick: TCU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — The Pokes have had UT’s number. And you can tell this irks Tom Herman. Gundy will at least cover. Pick: Oklahoma State
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — The Bears are attempting to rev it up for Big 12 play. Unfortunately, this non-conference has been a joke. Give me the Owls to cover, just on principle. Pick: Rice
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — I would love nothing more than another Jayhawks win, but it’s not happening. Pick: West Virginia
UTSA at North Texas -19 — The Mean Green have hung around with the big boys. Now it’s time to crush one of the little ‘uns. Pick: North Texas
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — Season’s on the line for the Ags. They have to solve this tough D. Maybe Kyle Field can rattle young Bo Nix. Pick: Texas A&M
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — I can’t stand Brian Kelly, but the Irish will indeed cover the spread. Pick: Notre Dame, reluctantly
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — The Utes are so overrated right now. Give me the Trojans or give me death! Pick: USC
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — I love picking against Harbaugh. It’s like its own sport. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — I’ve never cared less about a college football game in my life. Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — I think the Fins will use all this Taco knowledge and COVER!! Pick: Dolphins
Rams at Browns +3 — Rams will destroy Baker Brothers! Pick: Rams
CARLOS MENDEZ
Last week: 5-6-1
Season: 17-17-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — While the Frogs stabilize at quarterback, defense rules the day. But be careful. Pick: TCU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — Longhorns remain fired up for a reason. They have a good team. Pick: Texas
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — Rice is not al dente. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — Whatever’s going on at Kansas, is it worth 4 1/2 points? Not yet. Pick: West Virginia
UTSA at North Texas -19 — Been rolling with Mason Fine all year. Pick: North Texas
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — I’m not holding Clemson against the Ags. Pick: Texas A&M
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — It’s about time for the Bulldogs to crank up and make their CFP case. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — Utah’s the better team but swimming upstream against college football history. This is the kind of game that morphs into the crazy quick. Pick: Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — The better team at home. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — Cal’s a little light (injuries), and it’s a little early (9 a.m. California time kickoff). Pick: Ole Miss
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — It’s at 23 now? You can still have it. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Browns +3 — Coach vs. coach is the key matchup for me. Pick: Rams
JIMMY BURCH
Last week: 4-7-1
Season: 17-17-2
SMU at TCU -9 1/2 — The Horned Frogs remain the better team, but the resurgent Mustangs make them sweat to squeeze out a narrow win. Pick: SMU
Oklahoma State at Texas -6 1/2 — The Longhorns make amends for last year’s dreadful loss in Stillwater and start gathering momentum for the REAL Red River Rivalry in October at the Cotton Bowl. Pick: Texas.
Baylor at Rice +26 1/2 — That’s a large point spread but the Rice offense has been anemic all season, regardless of who lines up at quarterback. Pick: Baylor
West Virginia at Kansas +4 1/2 — The Jayhawks buried Boston College by 24 points as a road underdog last week and should win at home against the Mountaineers. The points are simply the cherry on top of the sundae. Pick: Kansas
UTSA at North Texas -19 — After a couple of rough weeks, the Mean Green and QB Mason Fine get back on track against the outmanned Roadrunners. Pick: UNT
Auburn at Texas A&M -3 1/2 — This has been A&M’s strangest series of the school’s SEC era, with the road team holding a 6-1 record. So give me Auburn, based simply on “tradition.” Pick: Auburn
Notre Dame at Georgia -14 1/2 — Notre Dame has not held up well in recent matchups against SEC heavyweights. Pick: Georgia
Utah at USC +3 1/2 — The early returns suggest Utah is the best team in the Pac-12. We’ll find out for sure in this matchup. Pick: Utah
Michigan at Wisconsin -3 1/2 — When in doubt, give me a dominant defense. Wisconsin has one. Pick: Wisconsin
Cal at Ole Miss -2 1/2 — The Golden Bears are undefeated on the West Coast, but their act should play well in the Central Time zone, too. Pick: Cal
Dolphins at Cowboys -23 — Yes, folks, the Dolphins ARE that bad. Pick: Cowboys
Rams at Browns +3 — The Browns are improved, but they’re not ready to hang with a true Super Bowl contender … yet. Pick: Rams
