Among football bettors, Week One always recalls a cautionary tale: Don’t overreact, especially on Overreaction Monday, which we think is a national holiday in Las Vegas.
Winning teams are seldom as strong as they appear in the first week of the season, and losers are seldom in such dire straits.
Instead, be smart. Assess the entire landscape. Watch the games. Weigh the early trends. Bet what you see, not where your heart leads you.
That advice isn’t going to help Aggies and Longhorns fans this weekend, we’re sure. But the point spreads make their teams verrry interesting bets.
And by the way, though it’s been lost in the news about Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys open their season Sunday against the Giants. There will be NFL football every week from now until February.
JOHN HENRY
Last week: 9-2-1
Season: 9-2-1
North Texas at SMU -4 – The Hayden Fry Bowl features a pitched QB battle pitting the Mean Green’s Mason Fine v. SMU’s Shane Buechele, the Texas ex from Arlington Lamar High. The UNT defense concerns this handicapper. Pick: SMU
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 – A wide gulf exists between the Nos. 6 and 9 teams in the country. This is a Cajun barbeque with Bevo, Texas defense the main dish. Pick: LSU
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 – The Aggies will be in striking distance in the fourth quarter. Pick: A&M
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 – Country roads, take them home to the place they belong. For the Moonshiners of Morgantown, that ain’t Mizzou. Pick: Missouri
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 – Somewhere in the third quarter, UTSA football coach Frank Wilson, inspired by the Alamo’s William B. Travis, will send out a desperate plea begging for reinforcements. “I am besieged by what seems like a thousand or more Southern Baptist football players under Matt Rhule … .” Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 – UTEP is 2-23 in its last 25 but on a one-game winning streak after squeaking by national power Houston Baptist last week. The Miners will need an intercession from another world to keep this within the county line. Pick: Texas Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 – No one could cover a beach towel like Cincy law grad William Howard Taft. But, this football game, not even he could cover. Pick: Ohio State
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Did you know Army has as many Heisman Trophy winners as Michigan? Lots of history in this game. And that spread seems too wide for an Army team that will make you work to get ahead by too much. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 – The word of the day is “mendacious.” Related topic: Art Briles and Rich Rodriguez working in the same state as offensive coordinators almost became reality. Only RichRod, who has made a career of flouting NCAA rules and ethics, got a job. He’s perfect in Mississippi and the SEC. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 – Tulane might surprise some people in the American Athletic Conference, but on the road at Auburn is a different kind of animal altogether. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 – The stars are aligned, the Cowboys are one happy family again after increasing Zeke’s allowance significantly. Stands to reason there will be some rust on the running back, but the Giants are terrible. Pick: Cowboys
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 – There’s a petition making the rounds, you might have heard about it, demanding that the NFL team playing in the nation’s capital change its name. “Washington, D.C.,” it is alleged, is an affront to all peoples of the NFL. The team is, too. There’s more to that odor than just Congress. Pick: Eagles.
ANTHONY ANDRO
Last week: 8-3-1
Season: 8-3-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — This game has a Denton domination vibe to it. Pick: North Texas
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — The SEC needs a statement win soon. This won’t be it. Pick: Texas
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — I’d love to go with my heart, but if I’m a gambling sort. Pick: Clemson
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — That’s a big spread for a team that got thumped by Wyoming. Pick: West Virginia
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Maybe Baylor is better than I thought. Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — Tech is better but is it 34 points better? Pick: UTEP
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — The only thing these programs share is a state. Pick: Ohio State
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Will Army allow Michigan enough points to cover? Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — These two programs are proof the SEC is top heavy. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Auburn may already have its QB for next three or four years. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — Zeke Who? Just kidding. Good start for Cowboys. Pick: Dallas
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — Feel like the Philly D can slow down the mighty Case Keenum. Pick: Philadelphia
ART GARCIA
Last week: 8-3-1
Season: 8-3-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — Pick: UNT
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — Pick: LSU
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — Pick: A&M
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Pick: Mizzou
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Pick: UTSA
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — Pick: Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Pick: OSU
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — Pick: Cows
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — Pick: Redskins
MARJORIE LEWIS
Last week: 7-4-1
Season: 7-4-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — SMU is much improved from last season, but not enough to cover. Pick: North Texas
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — Should be an exciting game, but LSU is a tad better. Pick: LSU
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — Coming off a subpar performance, QB Trevor Lawrence might have trouble with the A&M defense. Not enough to lose. Just won’t cover. Pick: Texas A&M
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Wyoming loss wasn’t horrible for Missouri. Wyoming is a solid team. Pick: Missouri
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Baylor is looking good. Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — UTEP is really bad right now. Pick: Texas Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Cincinnati will ride in with confidence after beating UCLA. Pick: Cincinnati
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Army is solid enough to keep Michigan from covering. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — Not much to write home about, but Ole Miss is home. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Tulane is pretty good this year, but Auburn is too much. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — Depends If Zeke has dusted off the cobwebs. Pick: Cowboys
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — Eagles are the superior team and home. Pick: Eagles
CARLOS MENDEZ
Last week: 7-4-1
Season: 7-4-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — Hot quarterbacks tend to stay hot. Pick: UNT
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — The better-hydrated team wins. Pick: Texas
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — This is a lot of points. Clemson is a lot of team. Pick: Clemson
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Tough to have your quarterback go for 423 and not win. That shouldn’t happen. Pick: West Virginia
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Lotta firepower at Baylor. Pick: BU
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — Red Raiders stay sharp. Pick: Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Bucks always work out the kinks, don’t they? Pick: Ohio State
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — The whole scene says college football. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — Um, exactly how much talent did Ole Miss lose to the NFL? Pick: Arkansas
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Auburn’s led for nine seconds this year. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — Conservative man in headphones makes me queasy about that half-point. Pick: Cowboys
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 –– It’s a passing league. Pick: Eagles
JIMMY BURCH
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 6-5-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — SMU has historically dominated this series. But this is a historically good UNT team, with maybe the best QB in school history. Pick: UNT
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 – The winner is a coin-flip proposition in a game that should be decided by a field goal or less. However, the home team covers. Pick: Texas
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — After making the Tigers sweat a year ago in College Station, these Aggies play on the road against uber-talented QB Trevor Lawrence, who was no factor in last year’s meeting. Pick: Clemson
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Mizzou QB Kelly Bryant, last year’s Clemson QB in the A&M game, gets his senior season untracked in a big way. Pick: Mizzou
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 – OK, I was wrong last week. Baylor’s defense HAS made strides since last year in support of a promising offense. Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 – The Red Raiders throttle a UTEP team that almost lost its opener to Houston Baptist, a school whose most notable former athlete is golfer Colin Montgomerie. Pick: Texas Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Buckeyes QB Justin Fields has a field day against the overmatched Bearcats. Pick: Ohio State
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Army’s ball-control offense will keep this one much closer than Jim Harbaugh would prefer. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — Two SEC punching bags square off, and the Rebels are still standing at the end. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Bo Nix, Auburn’s heralded freshman QB, got better with each series a week ago and should be more than the Green Wave can handle. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — The Cowboys win but the Giants make them sweat, as they usually do in season-opening matchups. Pick: Giants
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — The home team wins, but covering a line this large is a challenge in the NFL. Pick: Redskins
JAN HUBBARD
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 6-5-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — Mean Green won at home by 23 last year, but new QB Shane Buechele is the difference this year. Pick: SMU
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 – Texas looks like it has reached the elite level; LSU is already there. Pick: LSU
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 – Forget winning the game; Aggies will be impressive if they merely beat the line. Pick: Clemson
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Mountaineers have new coach and new QB; Missouri has home field. Pick: Missouri
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Matt Ruhle made winners out of Temple. He appears to be doing the same thing with the Bears. Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 – UTEP had an exciting 2-point win over Houston Baptist but the competition gets a little tougher. (Miners, by the way, were 1-23 in their previous two seasons). Pick: Texas Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Cincinnati has an impressive home win over UCLA last week and maybe that’s enough to at least keep the game reasonably close. Pick: Cincinnati.
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Army is an impressive 21-5 in the last two seasons with bowl victories in each. The Black Knights do not get intimidated, but Michigan simply has superior talent. Still, that’s a lot of points to give up. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — A battle of the two bottom feeders in the insanely difficult SEC West. The Rebels were not impressive in their opening loss to Memphis last week, but home cooking should make a difference. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — This one should get ugly early. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — No way Giants should compete with a Cowboys team that is loaded. Pick: Dallas
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — A have and a have not got together and the predictable happened. A blowout. Pick: Philadelphia
RICHIE WHITT
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 6-5-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — Mustangs looked better than expected in opener, but UNT is no one-week wonder. Pick: North Texas
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — Tigers have better defense; Horns have grittier QB. Give me the points in Austin. Pick: Texas
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — Aggies guarantees be damned, they remain merely fodder for the big boys. Pick: Clemson
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Mountaineers escaped FCS James Madison in opener. Yuck. Pick: Missouri
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Bears’ offense can name its score against Roadrunners. Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — If you didn’t know better, you’d think Kliff Kingsbury never left. Or, for that matter, Mike Leach. Pick: Texas Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Georgia transfer Justin Fields dazzled in debut as Buckeyes’ QB. Dangit. Pick: Cincinnati
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Black Knights could pull the upset. Could, I said. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — Good to get this SEC “showdown” outta the way while no one’s watching. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Tigers’ pulsating rally over Oregon will take emotional toll. Pick: Tulane
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — Zeke is back, but Eli has enough weapons to keep it uncomfortably close. Pick: Giants
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — Carson Wentz begins his team’s march to NFC East title. Sorry. Pick: Eagles
GIL LeBRETON
Last week: 6-5-1
Season: 6-5-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — Mean Green QB Mason Fine is a difference maker. Pick: North Texas
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — Homefield advantage plus home underdog make Texas a reasonable bet here, but LSU’s defense travels well. Pick: LSU
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — Just seems like way too many points to give away to a quality SEC West team. Pick: A&M
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — Mizzou gave away last week’s game. QB Kelly Bryant will make amends. Pick: Missouri
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — Last week was a good Baylor preview for this week. Bears will score often. Pick: Baylor
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — UTEP is worse than Montana St., whom Red Raiders beat by 35 last week. Pick: Texas Tech
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — Buckeyes will pull away late and cover that modest spread. Pick: Ohio State
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — Harbaugh won’t be shy about keeping the pedal down. Pick: Michigan
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — This series has seen lots of close games, and favored Rebels will again have trouble covering. Pick: Arkansas
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — Grad transfer QB Justin McMillan (of Cedar Hill) will keep Green Wave close enough against Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix. Pick: Tulane
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — With most pieces now in place, Cowboys can begin their Super Bowl journey. Pick: Cowboys
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — Division rivalry and a big point spread lead to Washington being a better bet. Pick: Washington
MATT MOSLEY
Last week: 5-6-1
Season: 5-6-1
North Texas at SMU -4 — SMU covers. Pick: SMU
LSU at Texas +4 1/2 — Tigers cover. Pick: LSU
Texas A&M at Clemson -18 1/2 — Ags cover. Pick: A&M
West Virginia at Missouri -13 1/2 — west va covers. Pick: West Virginia
UT-San Antonio at Baylor -27 — roadrunners cover due to the immense heat. Pick: UTSA
UTEP at Texas Tech -34 — miners cover. Pick: UTEP
Cincinnati at Ohio State -16 1/2 — bucks cover. Pick: Ohio State
Army at Michigan -23 1/2 — army covers. Pick: Army
Arkansas at Ole Miss -7 — ole miss covers. Pick: Ole Miss
Tulane at Auburn -18 1/2 — auburn covers. Pick: Auburn
Giants at Cowboys -7 1/2 — Giants cover. Pick: Giants
Redskins at Eagles -8 1/2 — Eagles cover. Pick: Eagles