Bet the House, Week 16

There are a few things to remember when picking bowl games.

No. 1, they are kids, they’ve just finished exams and, in way too many cases, they’re ready to hit the town . . . even if the town is Montgomery, Ala.

Look for those inevitable news blurbs, therefore, about players being sent home from the bowl game for “violating team rules.”

Pay close attention, too, to who’s decided to sit this one out. Guys with NFL stars in their eyes don’t want to risk their upcoming pro careers to play Syracuse in something called the Camping World Bowl.

Consider also the distraction factor. One major distraction — a coaching change, a player arrest, etc. — can affect the entire squad.

Weighing conferences versus conferences is fine, but it’s not always the safest way to wager.

But what do we know? We haven’t watched Toledo play all year.

Doesn’t mean we aren’t going to bet them. Or the Camellia Bowl, which will be contested today in a 96-year-old stadium.

 

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Gil LeBreton
Last week: 4-6
Season: 77-61-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette +3 1/2 (Orlando) — Green Wave has done a nice job since Cedar Hill product Justin McMillan transferred from LSU to start at QB, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have a more solid resume. Pick: UL-Lafayette

Utah State vs North Texas +7 1/2 (Albuquerque) — Utah State lost only to Michigan State and Boise this season. Pick: Utah State

Arizona State vs Fresno State -5 (Las Vegas) — Mountain West champs versus Pac-12 also-ran. Pick: Fresno

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan +3 (Montgomery, Ala.) — Georgia Southern averaged throwing only nine times a game this season. Pick: Eastern Michigan

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State -6 1/2 (New Orleans) — Mountaineers have a salty defense. Pick: Appalachian State

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois +2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) — Blazers have never won a bowl game. Pick: UAB

San Diego State vs Ohio -3 (Frisco, Texas) — Ohio U. is going to throw for 400 yards. Not sure Aztecs can stop them. Pick: Ohio

Marshall vs South Florida +2 1/2 (Tampa) — Yeah, Charlie Strong’s team ended the season with five losses in a row, but this is one of those odd bowl games with a true home team. Pick: USF

Florida International vs Toledo -6 (Nassau) — Wait a minute. They’re playing football in the Bahamas? Pick: FIU

Western Michigan vs BYU -13 (Boise) — Such a prize, a bowl game in Boise. BYU should win, but that’s a lot of points to give. Pick: BYU

Cowboys at Colts -3 — Pass the Kool-Aid. I’m taking the points and going with the so-called hottest team in the league. Pick: Cowboys

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Jimmy Burch
Last week: 5-5
Season: 72-66-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette + 3 1/2 (Orlando) — Tulane wins this Gumbo Gala by a whisker. Or maybe a crawfish. Pick: Tulane

Utah State vs North Texas + 7 1/2 (Albuquerque) — Give me North Texas’ coaching continuity over Utah State’s ongoing transition period in this matchup. And the 7 1/2 points are nice as well. Pick: UNT

Arizona State vs Fresno State – 5 (Las Vegas) — Fresno State will be far more fired up about taking down a Pac-12 school than ASU could ever be about beating the Bulldogs. Pick: Fresno State

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan + 3 (Montgomery, Ala.) — Georgia Southern has more victories (9), will play in a venue closer to its campus and still qualifies as an underdog. I like that combo. Pick: Georgia Southern

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State – 6 1/2 (New Orleans) — Appalachian State is on a collision course with an 11-game season and has drawn Top 25 votes all season. Pick: Appalachian State

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois + 2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) — A bowl victory seems like an appropriate conclusion, and a final dose of destiny, for a resurgent UAB football program that was terminated after the 2014 season but resurrected in 2017. Pick: UAB

San Diego State vs Ohio – 3 (Frisco, Texas) — Ohio enters on a roll, having scored 49 or more points in four of its last five games. Pick: Ohio

Marshall vs South Florida + 2 1/2 (Tampa) — Charlie Strong’s team enters on a five-game losing streak, which negates any significance to the fact USF is playing in its home stadium. Pick: Marshall

Florida International vs Toledo – 6 (Nassau) — Butch Davis’ team is getting points against a Toledo squad that will be far more distracted by its proximity to the beach? Yes, please! Pick: Florida International

Western Michigan vs BYU – 13 (Boise) — When in doubt, take the underdog when picking a bowl game. And I have a lot of doubt about this outcome. Pick: Western Michigan

Cowboys at Colts – 3 — Seems strange to see the hottest team in the NFL getting points, even in a road game. So I’ll take them. Pick: Cowboys

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Richie Whitt
Last week: 6-4
Season: 73-65-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette +3 1/2 (Orlando) — Green Wave’s superior run defense will make ULL one-dimensional. Pick: Tulane

Utah State vs North Texas +7 1/2 (Albuquerque) — Give me the points and offense that topped 30 points nine times against a team missing its head coach. Pick: North Texas

Arizona State vs Fresno State -5 (Las Vegas) — Bulldogs should romp against Sun Devils’ offense hampered by departure of WR N’Keal Harry. Pick: Fresno State

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan +3 (Montgomery, Ala.) — Eagles control the clock with one of the nation’s best running games. Pick: Georgia Southern

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State -6 1/2 (New Orleans) — App State is the better team, but I never like teams whose head coach has left for another job. Pick: Middle Tennessee

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois +2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) — Blazers’ defense is ninth in nation, allowing only 17 points per game. Pick: Alabama-Birmingham

San Diego State vs Ohio -3 (Frisco, Texas) — Aztecs started 6-1 before limping to the finish line. Pick: Ohio

Marshall vs South Florida +2 1/2 (Tampa) — I have no confidence in a Bulls team that lost its last five by 10+ points. Pick: Marshall

Florida International vs Toledo -6 (Nassau) — Team with the ball last wins a high-scoring, entertaining game. Pick: Toledo

Western Michigan vs BYU -13 (Boise) — Broncos are a shadow of themselves in wake of losing starting QB John Wassink to injury. Pick: BYU

Cowboys at Colts -3 — Emotional energy drops and luck runs out. Game means much more to Indy. Pick: Colts

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Anthony Andro
Last week: 5-5
Season: 72-66-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette +3 1/2 (Orlando) — The battle of Lousiana goes to New Orleans. Pick: Tulane

Utah State vs North Texas +7 1/2 (Albuquerque) — Having their coach stick with them should at least let UNT cover. Pick: North Texas

Arizona State vs Fresno State -5 (Las Vegas) — Herm Edwards has been better than a lot of people thought. Pick: Arizona State

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan +3 (Montgomery, Ala.) — These are the kinds of bowls that make or break bowl pools. Pick: Georgia Southern

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State -6 1/2 (New Orleans) — App State beats lots of good teams and Eddie Gossage’s alma mater will be another one. Pick: App State

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois +2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) — UAB is battle tested after playing mighty Texas A&M this year. Pick: UAB

San Diego State vs Ohio -3 (Frisco, Texas) — Frisco is the new granddaddy of all bowl games, especially if you’re from San Diego. Pick: SDSU

Marshall vs South Florida +2 1/2 (Tampa) — Isn’t this the Charlie Strong directional Florida team? Pick: Marshall

Florida International vs Toledo -6 (Nassau) — Florida is closer to the Bahamas than Toledo so that’s got to give it a bowl edge. Pick: FIU

Western Michigan vs BYU -13 (Boise) — A lot of points on the blue turf but BYU is a tested team. Pick: BYU

Cowboys at Colts -3 — The streak has to end some time and give Cowboys fans a reason to fret. Pick: Colts

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John Henry
Last week: 5-5
Season: 63-75-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette +3 1/2 (Orlando) – For two Louisiana schools, the best cure of a so-called Cure Bowl is generally an IV hydration station after a night of yielding to various delights. Pick: La.-Lafayette.

Utah State vs North Texas +7 1/2 (Albuquerque) – What effect will Matt Wells’ leaving for Texas Tech (he won’t coach in this game) have on the Aggies? Otherwise, the Aggies, 9-3 against the spread this season, are the better team here. Pick: Utah State.

Arizona State vs Fresno State -5 (Las Vegas) – Inspired Fresno State wins one for the Group of Five, spoiling 64-year-old Herm Edwards’ first bowl game as a coach. Pick: Fresno State.

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan +3 (Montgomery, Ala.) – President and CEO of Chick-fil-A and Arby’s, both Georgia Southern graduates > the Kellogg Eastern Michigan grad who created Corn Flakes. Pick: Georgia Southern.

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State -6 1/2 (New Orleans) – Can you imagine what’s being passed around the tailgate in this the Radiator Moonshine Bowl? Pick: Middle Tennessee.

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois +2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) – How does UAB coach Bill Clark – this year’s Eddie Robinson coach of the year – keep getting overlooked for a Power 5 job? Pick: Alabama-Birmingham.

San Diego State vs Ohio -3 (Frisco, Texas) – The Aztecs love playing in Texas, especially North Texas, a hotbed for recruiting. San Diego State is active here. Doesn’t mean they’ll beat these fur traders, though. The Aztecs got beat in Fort Worth last year and will again. Ohio is hotter than a Christmas hot tamale. Pick: Ohio.

Marshall vs South Florida +2 1/2 (Tampa) – The Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl sounds like something for a Longest Yard remake not the student-athletes of the NCAA. Whatever the case, that rumbling you hear must be a fracking earthquake because it’s not the Thundering Herd, whose six-game bowl win streak is stopped. This is a home game for South Florida. Pick: South Florida.

Florida International vs Toledo -6 (Nassau) – Butch Davis’ team at FIU is 9-4 against the spread as underdogs the past two seasons. That works for me. Pick: Florida International.

Western Michigan vs BYU -13 (Boise) – The Broncos will be with a freshman QB, but Kaleb Eleby has been good, and he has got two good running backs behind him. Add to that a dash of fact that BYU’s salty defense has a few holes created by injury. The points, Cookie Monster like. Pick: Western Michigan.

Cowboys at Colts -3 – Good road test for our born-again Vaqueros, who will need to get used to it for the playoffs. The cattle drive hits a few bumps on the way to market in Indy. Pick: Colts.

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Jan Hubbard
Last week: 3-7
Season: 56-82-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette +3 1/2 (Orlando) — ULL played Alabama this year. Lost by 42 points but it is valuable experience. Pick: ULL

Utah State vs North Texas +7 1/2 (Albuquerque) — Great that the Mean Green could keep head coach Seth Littrell but it’s hard beating a team that averages 47 points a game. Pick: Utah State

Arizona State vs Fresno State -5 (Las Vegas) — Good season for Herm Edwards and ASU, but Fresno averages nearly 40 points a game. Pick: Fresno State.

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan +3 (Montgomery, Ala.) — Southern has a better record but EMU plays a tougher schedule. Pick: Eastern Michigan

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State -6 1/2 (New Orleans) — Appalachian State has a good history in big games. Should win and cover easily. Pick: Appalachian State

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois +2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) — UAB gave up football for two years but now has two winning seasons after reinstating the program. Blazers know how to overcome the odds. Pick: UAB

San Diego State vs Ohio -3 (Frisco, Texas) — SDS was inconsistent this season but it had quality wins over Arizona State and Boise State. It’s always good to go with the team that had a tougher schedule. Pick: San Diego State

Marshall vs South Florida +2 1/2 (Tampa) — South Florida finished 7-5 but gave up 28 more points than it scored during the season. A leaky defense is fatal. Pick: Marshall

Florida International vs Toledo -6 (Nassau) — Toledo outscored last two opponents 107-47. Should be an easy game for the Rockets. Pick: Toledo

Western Michigan vs BYU -13 (Boise) — Playing the blue team on the blue field is never easy and WMU has a lousy defense. It is a big spread, but BYU should cover. Pick: BYU

Cowboys at Colts -3 — I have not been convinced that the Cowboys are a good team. Looks like I’m wrong so I’ll give them the edge. Of course, as poorly as I’ve done this season, they’ll probably tank this one. But maybe not. Pick: Cowboys

 

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Art Garcia
Last week: 4-6
Season: 55-83-2

Tulane vs UL-Lafayette +3 1/2 (Orlando) — There’s actually football played in Louisiana outside of Baton Rouge. Based on nothing more than name alone, give me the Ragin’ Cajuns. Pick: ULL

Utah State vs North Texas +7 1/2 (Albuquerque) — The Mean Green already won by keeping their coach. The Aggies can’t say the same. Pick: UNT

Arizona State vs Fresno State -5 (Las Vegas) — Herm Edwards has his fellas bowling. They’re also gonna lose. Pick: Fresno State

Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan +3 (Montgomery, Ala.) — The Panthers are on their way to double-digit victories. Pick: GSU

Middle Tennessee vs Appalachian State -6 1/2 (New Orleans) — App State is the new Boise State … except few care. Pick : App State

Alabama-Birmingham vs Northern Illinois +2 1/2 (Boca Raton, Fla.) — The Blazers are one of the more inspiring stories in recent times. Pick: UAB

San Diego State vs Ohio -3 (Frisco, Texas) — Should the weather turn, it would been a long journey for the loser. Pick: SDS

Marshall vs South Florida +2 1/2 (Tampa) — The Thundered Herd are primed for another premier showdown. Pick: Marshall

Florida International vs Toledo -6 (Nassau) — At least the venue is nine. Pick: Florida International

Western Michigan vs BYU -13 (Boise) — Baked potatoes for the victor. Well, maybe. Pick: BYU

Cowboys at Colts -3 — Does the Luck finally run out for the Boys? Not yet. Pick: Cowboys

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