If games are to be judged in advance by previous performance and statistics, the Dallas Cowboys are in big trouble. Instead of watching and studying the New Orleans Saints game tape this week, head coach Jason Garrett would have been better off showing his team the film version of David vs. Goliath because the Cowboys are facing, well, a Herculean task.
New Orleans will storm into AT&T Stadium for the Thursday prime-time game riding a 10-game winning streak, which led to an understatement by Garrett, who said: “It’s hard to do that in the NFL.”
Really?
But Garrett said it’s not only the prolific offense that causes opponents problems. “Defensively, they’re very aggressive,” he said. “They do a good job defending the run, they do a good job defending the pass, they make a ton of plays throughout on all three levels of their defense, kicking game. Their guys show up, they’ve got playmakers all throughout their team, they know how to use them and they’re just playing at an extremely high level.
“So certainly they challenge you a ton of different ways throughout their football team. But ultimately it comes down to us playing at the highest level we can play at.”
If anyone exemplifies playing at the highest level, it’s Austin native Drew Brees, the most accurate passer in NFL history. Brees, who has completed 67.3 percent of his passes in his career, has connected on 76.4 percent this season. If he maintains that pace, it will be another NFL record for him.
“He’s a very rare player,” Garrett said. “Obviously his production and statistics speak for themselves, but he is going to go down as one of the all-time great players in this league and he just has such a command of the position.”
Brees has a superior group of receivers led by Michael Thomas and two excellent running backs in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The result is the Saints have outscored opponents by a mind-boggling 153 points – or, 13.9 per game.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have outscored opponents by exactly 21 points, 234-213.
While that may depress Cowboys fans who have found a new sense of optimism in Dallas’ three-game winning streak, there is so much more. The Cowboys’ six victories have been against teams that are currently a combined 25-41. They have only one win over a team that is .500 or better – the 6-5 Redskins.
Their five losses, however, have been against teams that are 31-24. Four of those five – the Redskins, Panthers, Seahawks and Texans – are better than .500.
Translated: The Cowboys beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.
The Saints have not had a difficult schedule. Their 10 wins have been against teams that are a combined 53-65-2. But they are the only team in the league that has beaten the 10-1 Rams and they have quality road wins at Baltimore and Minnesota.
Want to compare head coaches? Sean Payton, who is in his 12th full season, has led his team to the playoffs six times in 11 years. Payton has as 7-5 playoff record, but most importantly, New Orleans won the Super Bowl in 2009.
For Garrett, the Super Bowl is something he watches in the comfort of his own home. In his seven full seasons the Cowboys have made the playoffs twice and played a total of three games. Garrett is 2-1 and has never reached the conference finals.
Payton has a career record of 115-72 (.615 winning percentage) while Garrett is 73-58 (.557).
You say you don’t want to compare quarterbacks? Too bad.
Before this season began, a quarterback had completed 70 percent or more of his passes eight times. Luminaries such as Joe Montana and Steve Young did it once each. So did TCU legend Sammy Baugh.
Brees has done it four times and is headed for a fifth. He is the only QB in NFL history to do it more than once.
Brees also has thrown for 5,000 or more yards five times in his 18-year career. All other quarterbacks combined have a total of four.
Oh, and by the way, Brees holds records for the most career completions and most passing yards in NFL history.
Dak Prescott is obviously at a different point in his career and he has always played in an offense that features running back Ezekiel Elliott. But it is worth pointing out that Prescott has thrown for more than 300 yards in a game three times in his career and none in the last 14 games.
Brees has thrown for more than 300 yards five times this season.
The running game offers Cowboys fans little respite. Elliott leads the NFL in rushing with 1,074 yards and has six TDs. Prescott serves as the second option running and has gained 279 yards while scoring five times.
So the top two rushing Cowboys have a combined 1,353 yards on the ground and 11 TDs.
New Orleans relies on two running backs and shotgun artist Taysom Hill. Alvin Kamara leads the Saints with 706 yards and 11 TDs and Mark Ingram has 440 yards and four TDs. Hill has added 174 yards and one TD.
So the Saints main running contributors have combined for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs.
Dallas is sixth in the NFL in rushing with 134.5 yards per game. The Saints are seventh with a 133.1 average.
The Cowboys do have advantages on defense. They rank third in points allowed with 19.4 a game, which is the largest contrast with the Saints, who lead the NFL with an average 37.2 points a game.
New Orleans ranks 15th in points allowed with 23.3 a game while the Cowboys average 21.3 points, which is 25th in the league.
On the surface, the game looks to be a blowout. Consider this: A week after the Cowboys defeated the Eagles by seven points, the Saints beat Philly by 41. Yes, the Saints were at home while Dallas won on the road, but that is a significant difference.
Regardless, it does seem Dallas will need a near perfect set of circumstances just to compete, let alone win.
“I don’t think you have to play perfect,” Elliott argued. “That is nearly impossible. I don’t think it’s going to take perfection. It’s going to take for us to come out there and play physical. Play our style of football and compete. We have to make sure we continue to do what we have been doing. Same approach we have had the past three weeks.”
“The Saints are a really good team, a really hot team,” Cooper said. “They’re one of the best teams in the league so if we can beat them that says a lot about us.”
