I was at St. Andrews in 1995 to see John Daly win the British Open. I returned five years later to watch Tiger Woods win his first British Open. It was one of three majors he won that year. He went on to win nine of the 20 PGA Tour events that year, and his 2001 Masters win gave him the fabled “Tiger Slam.”
This felt like it could last forever, but the events of Thanksgiving 2009 stopped Woods in his tracks. His wife Elin discovered that Woods had been a philanderer. Up to that point, the thought of Woods not surpassing Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 majors seemed ludicrous. For generations, golfers rarely won majors before their 30s. Even the great Arnold Palmer only had one major victory in his 20s.
Woods was wired to keep rolling, but the scandal and numerous back surgeries derailed his career. And with the emergence of Rory McIlroy and later, Dallas’ Jordan Spieth, we pretty much moved on from the Tiger era. Spieth won two majors in 2015 and added a British Open title in 2017. It seemed like he’d be the next golfer to chase Nicklaus’ record.
But something remarkable happened at the end of the 2018 season. Looking healthy for the first time in years, Woods won the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. In addition to looking dominant again on the course, his demeanor had changed. The young man who’d stared holes in his competitors (and autograph seekers) for years suddenly seemed pleasant and accessible. I found myself rooting for this version of Tiger more that at any time in his career. It’s rare that we see superstars fall apart in what should be the prime of their careers. During those four days in Atlanta, Woods was turning back time. He’d finished sixth at Carnoustie and second at The PGA Championship.
That leads me to say that Woods will indeed win his 15th major this year. You could see it against McIlroy in the recent WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event at Austin Country Club. McIlroy, who’d been playing extremely well, crumbled in Woods’ presence. That Woods lost in the next round against Lucas Bjerregarrd may have been a blessing in disguise since it saved him from another potential 36 holes in one day.
I think Woods’ best shot at winning a major this year is probably at Royal Portrush in July, but this Masters field is wide open. There’s no one in the top 10 of the World Golf ranking who has won a green jacket. Justin Rose just took over the No. 1 spot, and McIlroy and Brooks Koepka are Nos. 3 and 4. McIlroy is the betting favorite, but he has some demons from a past collapse (2011) at Augusta National. Koepka, who has become an absolute force in majors, has dropped a bunch of weight and doesn’t even look like himself. The defending champion, Patrick Reed, knows that his estranged parents who live a few miles from the course, might crash the party and square off with his beloved in-laws.
I just think Tiger’s in a great place mentally, and this is a course that plays to his unbelievable iron game. If he can hit fairways on a regular basis, there’s no reason why he can’t be in the mix Sunday. On the downside, he’s only won the Masters once since it was “Tiger-ized” 14 years ago. Younger golfers will be bombing away with no impunity. Tiger’s still plenty long off the tee, but his accuracy has never quite come back. He simply needs to give himself a chance with steady rounds on Thursday and Friday. There’s nothing like those roars coming through the pines at Augusta when Tiger’s making a move. I expect him to have at least a top-10 finish this weekend, which will set him up nicely for the rest of the season.
I also believe Spieth is capable of flipping the switch this week. He made an unbelievable run in the final round last year. If he can hold his emotions in check — always an issue with him — Spieth is capable of going on a run. It’s interesting how McIlroy has worked hard to take the emotion out of his game while Spieth has always fed off his. He’s only ranked 33rd in the world right now and he’s been quoted recently saying he sort of enjoys not having so many media requests. I think he’ll have plenty of requests by Sunday evening.
Charley Hoffman will jump out to his usual hot start, but it will be Jon Rahm and Woods battling Sunday. I feel really good about those picks, although I’d hold off on calling the neighborhood bookie.