One chases history; the other finds motivation in long shots. According to the professionals whose livelihood depends on such things, Toronto is in a hopeless situation as it prepares to meet Golden State in the NBA Finals.
The Warriors are the first team to appear in five consecutive NBA Finals since the great Bill Russell-Celtics teams in the ’50s and ’60s, while the Raptors are making their first Finals appearance in the 24-year history of the franchise.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas, who stand to gain or lose millions of dollars, have made the Warriors overwhelming favorites. That certainly provides motivation for the Raptors, and if they are looking for precedent, there would be no greater example than the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks, who fielded a team consisting of:
- A superstar (Dirk Nowitzki)
- An experienced guard (Jason Kidd)
- An athletic small forward (Shawn Marion)
- Bench scoring (Jason Terry)
- An unexpected boost (J.J. Barea)
- A strong inside presence (Tyson Chandler)
Each of the roles is competently filled by the Raptors.
Kawhi Leonard = Dirk
Kyle Lowry = Kidd
Pascal Siakam = a young Marion
Norman Powell = Terry
Fred VanVleet = J.J. Barea
Marc Gasol = Chandler
The Raptors’ task may be even tougher than what the Mavericks faced, however, because even though the Heat had LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, it was the first season those three played together.
Steph Curry arrived 11 years ago and was subsequently joined by Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. Those three have been together seven years and have won three championships, including one before Kevin Durant joined the team three seasons ago. So perhaps it should not have been surprising when Durant, who has been the Finals MVP the last two years, was injured in Game 5 of the second-round series with Houston, the Warriors didn’t flinch.
Since Durant (calf strain) was sidelined, the Warriors have won five consecutive games, including an impressive second-round close-out game against the Rockets in Houston and a 4-0 sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference Finals.
Durant is not expected to be ready to play when the series begins in Toronto Thursday night and Golden State also may be without Andre Iguodala, who missed the last game against Portland with a calf injury.
But, well, who cares? Since Durant’s departure, Curry has scored 33, 36, 37, 36 and 37 points, respectively, in the five games. He has averaged 35.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists while shooting .465 from the field while Durant has been out.
Green has been equally sensational. His 16.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists against Portland exceeded his regular season averages. Add in Thompson, who averaged 21.5 points, and the Warriors appear to be unstoppable even without Durant and Iguodala.
“They have some big-time stars, power and a number of star players” said Toronto head coach Nick Nurse. “They’ve got some great athletic and energetic role guys, a coach who has won not only as a coach but as a player. It will be a tall task, but we’ll try to figure it out.”
Las Vegas is betting that they don’t. In 2011, the Mavericks entered the Finals with the odds set at -180, which means it took a $180 bet on the Heat to win $100. Those who bet $100 on the Mavericks walked away with $180.
The Raptors are even heavier underdogs at -320. To win $100 on the Warriors, a bet of $320 is required and oddsmakers believe it is so unlikely Toronto can win the series that a $100 bet on Toronto will win $320.
Early reports indicate there has not been a lot of action on the Raptors, who have had an impressive run in the Eastern Conference, defeating Orlando, Philadelphia and Milwaukee to advance to the Finals for the first time.
Leonard has been captivating in the playoffs, averaging 31.2 points and 8.8 rebounds while shooting .507 from the field. His Game 7 four-bounce-on-the-rim shot against Philadelphia was every bit as dramatic as Tiger Woods’ chip-in at the 16th hole at the 2005 Masters and perhaps the greatest shot in NBA playoff history.
Lowry increased his scoring from 14.2 during the regular season to 19.2 against the Bucks. Powell did the same, averaging 14.2 after 8.4 in the regular season.
And Toronto received a major boost from VanVleet, a three-year veteran who played at Illinois in college. VanVleet, was 16 of 58 from the field (27.6%) and averaged 4.2 points a game in the first two playoff series. Against Milwaukee, however, he was 21 of 45 (46.7%) from the field and averaged 9.7 points.
It has been a rewarding season for the Raptors, who had a wild offseason last year. Winning a franchise record 59 games earned former Mavericks assistant coach Dwane Casey coach of the year honors. But two days after the honor was announced, Casey was fired because of his 21-34 playoff record.
The Raptors also traded All-Star guard DeMar DeRozen to San Antonio for Leonard, despite Leonard being in the last year of his contract. He will become an unrestricted free agent and if he signs elsewhere, the Raptors will have lost DeRozen for nothing.
But fresh off winning four consecutive games to overcome an 0-2 deficit to the Bucks, they believe they’ve gained the experience needed to stun the Warriors in the same way that Dallas stunned Miami in 2011.
“We’ve learned the margin of error gets smaller and smaller,” VanVleet said. “We know that going against the Warriors, it’s going to be even smaller.”
A sweep seems more likely than an upset, even though the Raptors have home court advantage. As the Mavericks proved, however, underdogs can become champions.
