The head coach was right. It’s Baylor week.
And we ought to be talking about TCU’s chances of utterly ruining the Bears’ dream of a season.
Instead, there’s this quarterback thing, where Horned Frogs quarterbacks are disappearing like leftover Halloween candy, and TCU coach Gary Patterson publicly wondered why that’s the story, and not whether his defense can stop Charlie Brewer.
He knows better, of course. Patterson’s lame line Tuesday — “We’re trying to win a ballgame, and all you guys are wanting to know if you can sell papers or not” — was more soundbite than substance. (Trust me, coach. Nobody is selling newspapers these days, especially that made-in-California rag that covers your team each week).
“By the way, we are playing Baylor,” Patterson interjected midway into his Tuesday media conference. “I just thought I’d throw that in for you guys.
“I promise I’m more concerned about it than you should be.”
OK, point made. But Patterson knows it’s his program that caused the distraction — the focus on the quarterback position. It’s the TCU coaching staff that made the decision to scuttle the season — whether Patterson wants to call it that or not — by thrusting true freshman Max Duggan into the No. 1 fire.
With select exceptions, a true freshman quarterback brings a witch’s brew of ills to a football team’s list of weekly challenges. Duggan qualifies as such. He’s 18 years old. He was in senior English class 12 months ago, and now he’s being chased by guys who are sometimes five years older than he is.
If a team is fortunate, the true freshman’s highlight plays outnumber the bad. But even Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston couldn’t get on the field as true freshmen.
When Trevor Lawrence led Clemson to the national title last season he became the first true freshman to do so since Jamelle Holieway did it for Oklahoma in 1986. Of the top recruits nationally in the 2018 class, only six started for their college team and completed as many as 100 passes last season. Lawrence was the only one whose team posted a winning record. The list of true freshman starters (and their teams’ records) includes J. T Daniels, Southern Cal (5-7); Adrian Martinez, Nebraska (4-8); Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (3-9); Artur Sitkowski, Rutgers (1-11), and Alan Bowman, Texas Tech (5-7, though Bowman got hurt and only played in eight games).
The successful outliers from other recent seasons can be counted on one hand — Jake Fromm, Sam Ehlinger, Kellen Mond.
Quarterback Robert Griffin III started as an 18-year-old true freshman and was named the Big 12’s offensive freshman of the year. But his 2008 Baylor team lost eight games.
Josh Rosen at UCLA was 8-5 as a true freshman quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) went 7-6. Jared Goff at Cal was 1-11.
Quarterbacks Manziel, Winston and Marcus Mariota all won Heisman trophies but were redshirted in their first seasons. Duggan has had the luxury of no such apprenticeship.
But that’s the point. Somewhere along the way, the decision was made — surely with Patterson’s approval — that the TCU program would benefit by investing in Duggan’s potential. And thereby accepting the consequences.
The results haven’t been all that consequential, frankly. Duggan has played well at times, throwing for 175.6 yards per game with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions and 319 net yards on the ground. The TCU attack is not exactly Air Max yet.
Patterson himself was 6-6 in his first full TCU season, in case you forgot.
As the season has gone on, I’ve been asked by radio hosts and by passers-by, “What’s wrong with TCU?” My answer remains the same: a true freshman quarterback who’s learning as he goes and a defense that gives up too many sporadic big plays.
Patterson talked Tuesday about that defense:
“The key is you have guys that are great reaction players and have to become processors, and there are guys that are processors who know what to do, but they don’t go do it.
“We just have to get more and more guys where we can make a lot of plays.”
TCU leads the Big 12 in total defense. But the Frogs are middle of the pack in scoring defense, allowing 26 points a game.
“We’re No. 2 in the country in 3-and-outs,” Patterson said, “which goes to show where we’re at with things. You’re getting people off the field. The problem is, you’re giving up five or six big plays, and that’s accounting for the points.”
The head coach did not critique his young quarterback at Tuesday’s media luncheon. That’s coordinator Sonny Cumbie’s job, for the most part. And the job of Duggan himself, son of a coach. His maturity and background are evident.
At the risk of repeating myself, the rule that a wise coach once gave me is that if you start a young freshman quarterback, you can expect him to directly or indirectly influence the win-loss outcome four times. Maybe he fumbles. Maybe he throws a foolish pick. Maybe he just doesn’t move the team one week, and his defense is gassed and gives up another big play.
Duggan has not been immune to the Freshman Four. But Cumbie and Patterson have shown the faith.
It’s not as if they still have an abundance of choices. Four-star quarterback recruit Justin Rogers entered the NCAA transfer portal two weeks ago. Graduate transfer Alex Delton, TCU’s opening game starter and hand-picked by Patterson to be a team captain, quit the team this week.
Delton saw his playing time diminishing as the season has gone on. When Duggan hurt his hand late in last Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma State, the Frogs needed a throwing threat at quarterback and Cumbie went with Mike Collins. Delton had to be discouraged by that choice.
With Collins also hurt for this week’s game, it’s Duggan or . . . Plan D?
I have minimal doubt that TCU is capable of playing good enough defense to pull off an upset of Baylor. But if the Frogs’ offense can’t move the ball, can’t keep the defense off the field, I have even less doubt that the Bears will turn Saturday into a one-team track meet by game’s end.
TCU’s true freshman quarterback is at the center of that. As Duggan plays, as he patiently works his reads and gets the football into the hands of Jalen Reagor and Taye Barber, so will go the Frogs.
To suggest that the teenager who will start at quarterback for TCU on Saturday isn’t worthy of the Baylor week discussion is specious, at best. And the head coach knows that, despite his protests.
(Main photo by TCU Athletics)