By MATT MOSLEY, aka DR. BRACKETS
For many years I have been diagnosing NCAA Tournament brackets for folks who are hearing about Belmont University for the first time in their lives. It’s a school in Nashville, by the way, that boasts one of the nation’s top music programs and occasionally produces a decent basketball team.
Most of us fell in love with this tournament because it’s fun to root for David against Goliath. Last year, the UMBC Retrievers became the first No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed. Virginia earned that dubious distinction, in part because head coach Tony Bennett somehow wins 28 games every season with an offense straight from the 1950s. A No. 16 seed won’t win again for the next 10-15 years, so don’t even think about going with something called Gardner-Webb in your bracket.
Dr. Brackets
The strategy that’s made me a household name in the field of bracketology mainly revolves around listening to everything CBS analyst Clark Kellogg says and then doing the exact opposite. It’s truly remarkable how a man who’s given his life to college basketball can be so clueless at this time of year. His partner in crime, Seth Davis, provides helpful information that is delivered in a very patronizing tone. For example, he said Sunday that UNC Greensboro being included in the “First Four Out” was a “great accomplishment for them.”
One of our (beloved?) local teams, TCU, was also included in this group, which caused Jamie Dixon to complain about how the selection committee seemed to ignore the Frogs having a better NET rating than some teams in the tournament field. According to that measure, St. John’s shouldn’t have been anywhere close to getting in. But the chairman of the committee, who moonlights as the director of athletics at Stanford, wisely started talking about how teams like Belmont had done against “Quad 1” programs. This worked to confuse Kellogg and it briefly threw folks off his scent.
In reality, the Frogs blew a great opportunity when they lost to a bad West Virginia team in Morgantown and followed it with blowout losses at home to Texas Tech and Kansas State. Wins over .500 Texas and Oklahoma State weren’t enough to get the Frogs off the bubble. They can take solace in seeing the Horns play in the NIT for the first time in 33 years.
Now it’s time to dial down on some of these early matchups and see if I can help you pick a few upsets on Thursday and Friday. First of all, there’s really nothing to be gained by trying to predict a 3 seed over a 14 or even a 4 seed over a 13. Four seeds are 108-28 (794 percent) against 13 seeds, according to a CBS graphic I jotted down Sunday. But it’s OK to have at least one No. 5 seed knocking off a 12 seed. The Liberty Flames are a hot pick to knock off No. 5 seed Mississippi State, in part because the Bulldogs haven’t really accomplished anything since Erick Dampier was playing center. The Mississippi state schools only hire coaches with scandal-ridden pasts, which is always fun until, well, they get in trouble again.
I know Ben Howland was a good coach at one point in his career, but he’s a great guy to pick against. I just can’t pull the trigger on Liberty, which is funny since most of its students become lifetime NRA members. Anyway, I like No. 12 seed Murray State (27-4) to knock off Marquette (24-9). This may be the most attractive matchup of the first round because it features Murray State point guard Ja Morant against Marquette’s 5-11 guard Markus Howard, who dropped 53 on Creighton in January.
Morant is projected to go as high as No. 2 in the NBA draft behind Duke’s Zion Williamson. At 6-3, Morant averages 24.6 points per game, 10 assists and 5.5 rebounds. Marquette has been awful the last couple weeks and Howard is coming off one of the worst shooting efforts of his career in a conference tournament loss. The good doctor wants you to take Murray State in this game and not look back.
Don’t be tempted to take No. 11 seed Ohio State over 6 seed Iowa State. Blue-blood programs are completely embarrassed to show up with double-digit seeds. The Cyclones are deep and they shot everyone out of the building in the Big 12 tournament, which is held in Kansas City every year in honor of Bill Self. The Cyclones are really talented, but if you want to jump on a bandwagon in the Midwest region, go with the No. 3 seed Houston Cougars. This is a veteran team that absolutely could give No. 1 seed North Carolina some problems. I definitely think the Cougars would take down No. 2 seed Kentucky in that region. Houston is one of the more experienced teams in the tournament and they have an elite backcourt led by Corey Davis Jr. The Coogs will eventually have to vacate this deep run due to Kelvin Sampson being their coach, but no one cares about that. You think John Calipari worries about the wins he’s had to vacate over the years? Not on your life.
Texas Tech also has a legitimate shot at making the Final Four. Losing to West Virginia in the first round of the tournament was a blessing in disguise because it allowed the Red Raiders to get some rest. They’ve been on an incredible run that allowed them to claim a share of the Big 12 title. Jarrett Culver is one of the best players in this tournament and he’s capable of going off for 25 points in every game. But he’s also an unselfish player who helps set up his sharp-shooting teammates. This is a more complete team than the one that made the Elite Eight last season. And the Red Raiders actually gave No. 1-seed Villanova some problems in a loss. I don’t see Texas Tech being intimidated at all by either No. 2 seed Michigan or 1 seed Gonzaga. There’s not a team that would scare the Red Raiders in this field, although they did lose to Duke at a neutral site earlier this season. Chris Beard is just an outstanding coach, and fortunately for the Tech fandom, it doesn’t appear the Longhorns are prepared to come after him at this point.
If you are hellbent on picking a No. 13 seed, go with the U.C. Irvine Anteaters. Peter the Anteater is a fun mascot and this a really talented team that won 30 games. Kansas State won a share of the Big 12 title, but no one knows if forward Dean Wade will be able to play. He was still wearing a boot at the Wildcats’ celebration Sunday. The return of Cartier Diarra has sparked the Kansas State offense, but I could see the Wildcats losing to UC Irvine. It’s the only 4 seed that looks vulnerable to me.
Cincinnati and Nevada are both No. 7 seeds that could do a lot of damage. The Bearcats deserved a better seed, but they will be playing in nearby Columbus. I could see them giving No. 2 seed Tennessee all sorts of trouble. The Vols had a remarkable season, but they really struggled against a hot Auburn team in Sunday’s SEC title game.
Nevada has won 29 games and I think they could hang with Michigan and Texas Tech. The Wolfpack beat Texas and Cincinnati to reach the regional semifinals last season, so they have some tournament pedigree. This just feels like a dangerous team to me, so don’t be afraid to ride with this team against Michigan.
Regarding the other Big 12 teams, No. 9 seed Baylor will beat Syracuse and then fall to No. 1 seed Gonzaga. Kansas will sneak by Northeastern and then fall to Auburn in the second round. Bruce Pearl has a team that puts up about 30 threes per game and the Jayhawks don’t have the defense to counter that onslaught.
If you need to reach the good doctor during the tournament for advice, please use the Twitter handle @mattmosley. Everyone have a wonderful week. And don’t even think about picking a 15 seed to win despite our love for the Church of Christ kids from Abilene.
