As the Dallas Cowboys unpack their things today from their ill-fated trip to that pit of vipers in Los Angeles, the hierarchy will no doubt already begin mulling what’s next for a football team stuck in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Some might call it stuck in mud, but even after a 30-22 loss to the Rams on Saturday, moving on is the only option.
Well, that’s what we’ve been telling ourselves for more than two depressing decades.
Travis Frederick’s return to full health will be at the top of the list, as well as adding depth to the offensive line. There were a number of reasons for the Cowboys’ inconsistencies on offense, and Frederick not being there was certainly a factor.
They’ll look at tight ends. Not having a reliable target at that position was harmful.
There will again be chatter about Earl Thomas, the Seattle Seahawks safety and noted Cowboy wannabe, who again looked to be the best at his position before breaking his leg in October. He will be a free agent this off-season.
The Cowboys will have money to spend, an estimated $50 million in cap space.
The first chunk of it will go to their own, starting with DeMarcus Lawrence, the high-value edge rusher who will be rewarded in free agency for his quarterback-hating ways.
Owner Jerry Jones has vowed long-term marriage to quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott will never be mistaken for Brady, Brees or even Bartkowski, but he’s the guy.
Prescott has never fully developed from his 2016 Rookie of the Year season. What we see today might be what he is. But for all his many deficiencies in the pocket – he’s a highly inconsistent, at times erratic, passer — Prescott is a gamer and tough competitor.
That’s something.
And if not Prescott, then who?
That’s an important question because the Cowboys, despite a young roster, are working with a tiny window.
Ezekiel Elliott is going to make a lot of money this off-season, too.
Something in the neighborhood of four years and $65 million would seem to be the market, considering what Rams running back Todd Gurley got last off-season. That was four years and $57.5 million.
There will be no Le’Veon Bell soaps. Jones will pay it, though there are plenty of reasons to question the wisdom.
Jones declined to give DeMarco Murray a big contract after his 2014, the year he was selected the NFL’s offensive player of the year. That season, Murray rushed for more than 1,800 yards on 392 carries, the seventh-most rushing attempts in an NFL regular season.
That workload and a pretty trusty historical trend were the prime reasons.
Find a running back who has 370 or more carries in a season and look at his next season. It is generally a sharp decline in productivity.
The Eagles bit on Murray. Sure enough, his production dropped significantly the next season before a trade to Tennessee, where he rushed for 1,200 yards in 2016 and 659 in 2017, his last.
Three seasons after his career year, he was done.
Few running backs in the current era have been ridden as hard as Elliott, who has been as dependable a workhorse as there is in the league.
Never in three seasons has he approached that 370 threshold.
However, there is another line of demarcation, which he is quickly approaching: 1,800 career carries.
Shaun Alexander exemplifies what typically happens at this mark.
The Seahawks gave him an eight-year, $62 million deal after his MVP season in 2005, during which he hit 1,800 career carries. The next season, his rushing totals dropped from 1,880 yards to 896. In 2005, he scored 27 touchdowns. The next season, seven.
Two seasons later, he was out of the league.
So, using the data, we might be able to forecast the shelf life of Elliott’s productivity.
Including the playoffs, Elliott has 936 career carries in three seasons, 864 carries short of 1,800.
In two full seasons, he has averaged 313 carries. (The six-game suspension last season might have been a godsend, at least in terms of longevity.)
If he continues on that pace, he’ll hit 1,800 carries in 2021, slightly more than 21/2 seasons.
This was likely at the center of the contract dispute between Bell and the Steelers. Had he played this season, Bell would be in the 1,500-plus carries range.
How much money are you willing to spend on a car that you know will likely have terminable mechanical problems in two years?
It’s a very young man’s game, this football.
Elliott will get his money, but the clock is ticking.